NRF Reveals Retail Sales Forecast

The National Retail Federation is projecting that U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) will increase between 3.7 and 4.2 percent over 2016.

April 6, 2018

NRF Reveals Retail Sales Forecast

Unemployment rates are expected to decline while retail industry sales are projected to increase.


Additionally, online and other non-store/online sales, which are included in the overall number, are expected to increase between 8 and 12 percent.

However, the NRF’s forecast is a baseline, and does not take into account any new fiscal measures pending in Washington.

“The economy is on firm ground as we head into 2017 and is expected to build on the momentum we saw late last year,” says Matthew Shay, president and chief executive officer, NRF. “With jobs and income growing and debt relatively low, the fundamentals are in place and the consumer is in the driver’s seat. But this year is unlike any other–while consumers have strength they haven’t had in the past, they will remain hesitant to spend until they have more certainty about policy changes on taxes, trade and other issues being debated in Congress. Lawmakers should take note and stand firm against any policies, rules or regulations that would increase the cost of everyday goods for American consumers.”


economic insights include:

  • The economy is expected to gain an average of approximately 160,000 jobs a month, which is slightly down from 2016 but consistent with labor market growth.

    • Unemployment is expected to drop to 4.6 percent by the end of the year.

      • Economic growth is likely to be in the range of 1.9 to 2.4 percent.

        “Prospects for consumer spending are straightforward–more jobs and more income will result in more spending,” says Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist, NRF. “Regardless of sentiment, the pace of wage growth and job creation dictate spending. Our forecast represents a baseline for the year, but potential fiscal policy changes could impact consumers and the economy. It seems unlikely that businesses will notably increase investment until tax reform and trade policies are well-defined.”

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