Holiday Sales Outlook Optimistic

The National Retail Federation expects retail sales in November and December (excluding autos, gas and restaurant sales) to increase 4.1 percent to $616.9 billion this year, higher than 2013’s actual 3.1 percent increase during that same time frame.

The NRF expects that improvements over the past few months in key economic indicators will give way to increased spending power among holiday shoppers. If actual sales meet these expectations, it would mark the first time since 2011 that holiday sales would increase more than 4 percent.

Holiday sales on average have grown 2.9 percent over the past 10 years (including 2014’s estimates) and are expected to represent approximately 19.2 percent of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion.

Additionally, Shop.org is forecasting an increase in online sales in November and December of 8-11 percent with total sales estimated at $105 billion.

“Retailers could see a welcome boost in holiday shopping, giving some companies the shot in the arm they need after a volatile first half of the year and an uneventful summer,” says Matthew Shay, president and chief executive officer, NRF. “While expectations for sales growth are upbeat, it goes without saying there still remains some uneasiness and anxiety among consumers when it comes to their purchase decisions. The lagging economic recovery, though improving, is still top of mind for many Americans."