What's Trending in Toys This Holiday Season

‘Tis the season for giving, and if there are any kids (or kidults) in your life, a toy or two may be on your holiday shopping list. According to The Toy Association, U.S. retail sales of toys generated $28 billion in 2023, making the category an important one to watch as Q4 comes to an end. License Global chatted with Juli Lennett, vice president, toys industry advisor, Circana, to learn more about the category: what products are trending, what licensed properties are selling in toys and more.

License Global: You're an expert on the toy industry. What toys are you noticing are having a major moment right now? Are there any IP properties that are especially popular?

Juli Lennett: For the first eight weeks of Q4 in the U.S., the licenses that are really popping out in terms of dollar growth compared to last year are probably ones that you would expect. “Bluey,” Hello Kitty, the NFL (trading cards have been huge this year, particularly with the adult audience,) Sonic the Hedgehog, Miss Rachel and “Wicked” the movie at #6. It's been interesting, considering we haven't had a strong movie line-up this year up until this moment in time with “Moana 2” and “Wicked.” Toys for both movies still have a long runway since the movies just came out.

Related:License Global’s 2024 Holiday Gift Guide

You also mentioned “Moana 2.” Did that make the list for top toy sales?

“Moana 2” is number 11 in terms of growing licenses. So again, only a couple of weeks at the theatre. We'll have to give that one a little bit more time as well.

So, you would predict “Wicked” and “Moana 2” are probably going to move up in the ranks?

I expect both will move up in the [toy sales growth] ranks by the end of Christmas.

So we talked about licenses. What about toy types? Are dolls popular? Plush? What are kids or kidults clamoring for right now, regardless of brand?

When we look at the top categories that are really doing well in terms of total dollars for the first eight weeks of Q4, standard building sets is at the top. LEGO toys are selling particularly well. Standard building sets have been our top category as well as our top growth category for the entire year. Plush continues to be super popular. We're really seeing a hangover from the success of Squishmallows, which continues to sell a lot of toys. Strategic trading card games, like Pokémon, are always a very popular gift. Pokémon will be the number one property for the total toy industry for the entire year. There's nobody who's going be even close to catching up. And there’s miscellaneous toys, where you're going to see collectibles from Zuru and MGA, 5 Surprise and Miniverse. Those are the top categories selling now, but when we talk about dollar growth, I already mentioned building sets, but sports trading cards are growing very rapidly. I already mentioned strategic trading card games and that is followed by preschool talking & sound, which is an interesting one. There's one brand driving growth, Toniebox. They're the number one property in Germany this year, and this is their holiday break-out season in the U.S. Looking at the top 20 selling toys within preschool talking & sound, Toniebox makes up 13 of those top 20 selling toys. While Toniebox has many licenses, Disney licenses are topping the bestsellers right now: “Moana,” “Frozen,” Spider-Man, Disney Princess, “Little Mermaid,” “Encanto,” “Tangled” to name a few.

Related:The License Global Toy Forecast 2025

What trends are you seeing in the toy industry that will affect how consumers shop this holiday season?

One of the things we're seeing, in this first eight weeks of Q4, is solid growth in both the online channel and physical stores, with the online channel outpacing physical stores. The online channel typically gains share in Q4, but physical stores are putting up a fight this holiday and also performing well.

Do you have any other predictions for this holiday season regarding consumer behavior and toy shopping?

With respect to Christmas, the only thing I keep reminding people is that we have a shortened calendar this year. There's one less weekend to shop. Last year there were five weekends between Thanksgiving and Christmas and this year there are only four. The procrastinators might get caught off guard, Christmas might sneak up on them, resulting in a heightened rush of sales late in the season.