The License Global Toy Forecast 2025The License Global Toy Forecast 2025

The toy industry is poised for transformative growth in 2025. Fueled by technological innovation, shifting consumer priorities, sustainability initiatives and a continued rise in nostalgia-driven purchasing, major toy companies such as LEGO, Mattel and Hasbro are helping redefine the future of play for kids and adults alike. License Global takes a look at the established, emerging and forecasted trends within the toy market to uncover the impacting factors of the next 12 months.

Looking Back to See Ahead

The permeation of kidult culture defined the toys and games market in 2024 alongside trends such as the omnichannel presence of toy brands, nostalgia appeal, multi-generational cross-play and the fluctuation of consumer priorities. While countless opportunities and trends drive activity in the toys and games market, there has been no shortage of challenges as consumer confidence impacts retail sales. 

Circana’s view on H1 2024 confirmed a global drop in sales by 1% and fluctuating activity across product types and toy categories. In the U.S., the market held steady, declining just 0.4%, with three of 11 toy categories even seeing sales growth, led by building sets and primarily driven by kidult demand for LEGO Icons, driving 25% dollar growth. Explorative and other toys saw 9% growth owing to sports trading cards with the NBA and NFL, while vehicles also saw growth driven by Monster Jam. 

Related:The Top Global Licensors Report 2024

The top 10 properties in the U.S. toy sales market were Barbie, LEGO Icons, the NFL and NBA. Jazwares held an impressive ratio of products in the top-selling toys category with Squishmallows, while LEGO, Mattel, Zuru and Pokémon played vital roles in the list. 

Global activity dropped a point from January to June 2024 compared to 2023. However, momentum with older consumers such as adult fans and collectors led Circana to forecast more excitement around toys leading into the holiday season – especially across building sets, plush, robotic interactive pets and collectibles globally.

The key questions are: will the toy business maintain its course, and what trends will continue to shape the toy industry as we know it? When compiling survey data for License Global’s Top Global Licensing Agents and Top Global Licensors reports, we discovered that toys continued to be a core part of the forward strategy for brand owners looking to engage audiences via the toy aisle next year.

In both surveys, 39.4% of brand owners and agents emphasized the continued importance of toys in the future of the $356.5 billion brand licensing business. Toys and games have long been an essential part of the brand ecosystem, allowing kids (and now adults) to engage with their favorite intellectual properties and communities through play, fandom and collectibles.

Related:Leading Licensees 2024

Funko Pop! “Sesame Street” Cookie Monster

Kidults Continue to Hold the Toy Market 

Kidult culture, a trend of fans from Gen Z to Gen X purchasing toys for themselves, has grown into one of the primary drivers of toy sales in 2024 worldwide. In the U.S. alone, adults accounted for $1.5 billion of Q1 toy sales this year, according to Circana, keeping global decline at bay and adults engaged with brands. 

43% of adults in the U.S. purchased a toy for themselves in the last year, driving new activity around brands like Hot Wheels, Pokémon Trading Cards and NFL/NBA sports cards. In Europe, adults generated over $4.8 billion in toy purchases in 2023, with board games and nostalgia brands across the U.K., France, Italy, Germany and Spain driving a 5.5% increase in sales.

“With a passion for board games, puzzles and collections, a heavy dose of fandom and a touch of nostalgia, it seems that older kids and adults are redefining the toys market,” says Frédérique Tutt, global industry advisor, Toys, Circana. “Despite the increased cost of living, fans of toys and games know what they like and are prepared to spend money on it. To some extent, this is down to consumer groups with deeper pockets who can afford to indulge their passions, but we’re now also seeing a rise in serious toy collectors, fans of pop culture and those who take gaming, puzzling and playing to another level.”

Related:Courage and Honor: Games Workshop on ‘Space Marine 2’ and Warhammer’s Legacy

Kidult culture shows no signs of slowing in 2025 as nostalgia, collectability and fandom surge across consumer communities and brand licensing strategies worldwide. Key brands such as Hasbro, Mattel, LEGO and more all accommodate the kidult culture with dedicated divisions and branches, such as Hasbro Pulse, a devoted fan convention that showcases new adult-first collaborations and retro-inspired toys like the highly detailed “Star Wars” Black Series. Mattel has dedicated ranges, including Mattel Creations that collaborate with artists and cultural pioneers for limited-edition collections, along with a growing and loyal fan base of adults who have grown up with the brand’s iconic toy lines. LEGO Icons, a brand for consumers age 18 and up, presents lines in collaboration with everyone from Pharrell Williams and retro automotive classics to SEGA, “Transformers” and “Lord of the Rings.” 

“Adult fandom has become the fastest-growing segment of the toy market and a sector that Hasbro has continued to deliver on,” says Tim Kilpin, president, toys, board games, licensing and entertainment, Hasbro. “We believe in the power of adult fans, and you see that shine through in our 2024 product offerings, especially when it comes to brands like Transformers, Dungeons & Dragons (D&D), MAGIC: The Gathering, My Little Pony and Furby.”

Nostalgia continues to be a significant driver of toy sales, particularly with the resurgence of retro brands and reboots. The influence of millennials and Gen Xers who grew up with classic toys and are now sharing them with their children, has led to a revival of heritage IPs. In 2024, toy companies capitalized on this trend with successful reboots of franchises like Transformers, Barbie and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.

Film-related licensed toys accounted for 32% of the total toy market in the first half of 2024, a 6% growth compared to the previous year. According to Tutt, much of this growth is fueled by cross-generational appeal and film-driven merchandise. The success of major motion pictures, such as “Barbie” and “TMNT: Mutant Mayhem,” pushed sales of their corresponding toy lines, and this trend is expected to continue in 2025. 

“The resurgence of retro brands and film-related toy lines is not just about nostalgia – it’s about building multigenerational connections,” says Tutt. “Parents who grew up with iconic franchises like Transformers or Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles now share these beloved characters with their children, creating a sense of continuity across generations. Additionally, the ubiquity of streaming platforms, which make it easier for families to access these classic IPs, has only amplified this trend, ensuring that toys linked to iconic films and TV shows remain evergreen in their appeal.”

The driver behind the kidult trend is more than just retro or film-related; with most brands now holding a heritage as long-standing, beloved brands, they are transforming into multigenerational touchpoints for families and older consumers looking for a dose of nostalgia. Sesame Workshop is another brand that successfully engages audiences of all ages by creating a line of baseball-inspired products with adult fans in mind.

“As a multigenerational brand, one of our priority demographics is our adult fans, and we’re thrilled to expand our range of innovative ‘Sesame Street’ products with them top of mind,” says Gabriela Arenas, senior vice president, global licensing, Sesame Workshop. “Fall is a season steeped in nostalgia, making this the perfect time of year to honor your inner child by reconnecting with the joyful classic characters of your youth. Our newest collaborations featuring iconic furry friends invite people of all ages to celebrate – or create – cherished childhood memories.”

Building on highly successful launches from the last year of new items for adult fans, Sesame Workshop, the global nonprofit behind the iconic show, continues its kidult product collaborations with beloved brands and pop-culture creators specializing in collectibles, costumes, comics and more available this fall with Funko and other brands.

As the toy industry looks to 2025, we can expect more brands to tap into nostalgia and entertainment’s enduring power. According to Statista, the global toy industry is projected to grow from $141 billion in 2022 to $230 billion by 2030, driven by cross-generational play and retro IPs.

Hasbro’s The Gameroom

Play Goes Big

The power of toy brands moving into physical experiences is a growing trend that can’t be understated. Toy brands increasingly turn to location-based entertainment (LBE) to expand their offerings and provide fans with immersive experiences. Branded theme parks, pop-up experiences and family entertainment centers have become valuable extensions of toy IPs, allowing consumers to interact with their favorite toys in real-world environments.

In 2023, Mattel announced its Mattel Adventure Park, offering Barbie and Hot Wheels fans immersive, themed experiences. From Hot Wheels Bone Shaker and Twin Mill rides to a full-scale Barbie Beach House and Masters of the Universe laser tag arena, the Mattel Adventure Parks in Glendale, Ariz., and Kansas City, Kan., are set to welcome guests year-round upon opening. 

“Mattel Adventure Park is an amazing opportunity to bring our beloved brands to life,” says Julie Freeland, senior director, global location-based entertainment, Mattel. “Construction is underway, and substantial progress has been made on what will give fans of all ages a day of thrills and nostalgia. We’re especially excited for families to experience the Hot Wheels Bone Shaker rollercoaster – a dream come true for any Hot Wheels fan.” 

Mattel is also building touchpoints for popular brands worldwide outside of U.S. attractions. One key example is the Hot Wheels e-kart experience, heading to six cities across Saudi Arabia with Saudi Entertainment Ventures (SEVEN).

“‘Hot Wheels’ captures the challenger spirit, inspiring everyone to reach their full potential,” says Josh Silverman, chief franchise officer, Mattel. “This ethos aligns perfectly with SEVEN’s mission to deliver world-class entertainment that brings joy and excitement. More than just an e-karting experience, it’s a turbocharged destination for families, thrill-seekers, competitors and newcomers. We’re excited to partner with SEVEN to bring ‘Hot Wheels’ across the Kingdom.”

Similarly, LEGO continues to build on its network of LEGOLAND parks, which remain highly successful in expanding its reach with new parks opening in APAC. In contrast, Hasbro continues to create new and engaging experiences worldwide, from the Monopoly Tea Tour in EMEA to the Monopoly Steakhouse in Latin America and Planet Playskool in the U.K. on top of its existing LBE programs. 

“Global Experiences is certainly a key franchise growth driver for us at Hasbro, and we’re continuing to expand in this category at a remarkable pace,” says Kilpin. “We hold 500-plus annual events globally and have 125-plus licensee-led properties open. In 2023, we welcomed over 55 million visitors to our Hasbro-branded properties. After the COVID-19 pandemic, people have been craving in-person experiences and new ways to connect with their favorite brands. This has created an experience economy, and Hasbro is at the forefront of building innovative, immersive experiences for our fans. As we look ahead to 2025, two Global Experience areas that we’re heavily investing in are retail and food and beverage. We just opened the first-ever standalone, permanent Transformers and Peppa Pig retail stores in London’s Battersea Power Station and look forward to growing our footprint. By the end of next year, we expect to have over 250 physical Hasbro brand locations worldwide, each with dedicated retail.” 

According to Market Research, LBE is projected to generate $5.7 billion annually by 2025 for the global toy and entertainment sectors. These experiences allow toy companies to enhance fan engagement and diversify their revenue streams. More brands will likely partner with entertainment venues, using technology such as AR and VR to create more profound, interactive consumer experiences.

Hot Wheels E-Kart, Mattel

Toys, Games and Virtual Worlds

With over 3.4 billion gamers, gaming and its IP portfolio of detailed, immersive digital experiences continues to drive fan activity and countless hours of engagement worldwide. Players engage with these brands to escape, compete, experience, communicate and more, leading to a deep emotional connection to a video game IP that can transform any title into a global brand. Vice versa, if an established IP enters the gaming space, especially a toy or board game, the results can be equally powerful and allow fans and newcomers to experience in-depth lore and get hands-on with characters in impactful ways. 

One key example of this in recent months was the smash-hit title, “Space Marine 2,” from Games Workshop and Saber Interactive, which took the profound, complex lore of the Warhammer 40K universe and transformed it into a seamless combat and cooperative experience that saw 4.5 million players within one month of launch according to publisher, Focus Interactive.

“Video games make the IP much more digestible from a licensing perspective when we can look at one element rather than the brand in its entirety,” says Owen Rees, group head, licensing, Games Workshop. “‘Space Marine 2’ tells the story of the legendary character, Titus, and a group of Space Marines within the Ultramarines chapter fighting against the terrifying Tyranid threat.”

Another successful title that cemented gaming’s place in our toy forecast was “Baldur’s Gate III,” which took the D&D tabletop franchise and brought it to life by simultaneously reigniting the Baldur’s Gate portfolio of video games. 

Hasbro also saw a phenomenal increase in digital gaming activity in 2024 thanks to its work with Scopely on “Monopoly GO!,” a mobile game that, once again, took a beloved global board game and toy property and injected it into the digital gaming world.

“While adult fandom is certainly here to stay, we see huge potential for digital-first offerings in 2025 and beyond,” says Kilpin. “We live in an increasingly digital world, and for Gen Z and Gen Alpha, the digital sphere has become a social hub like the mall was for millennials. It’s where young people meet with friends, come into their own identity and shop, so that is where brands need to be. And there’s an appetite for this from consumers! In fact, according to a 2024 YPulse report, 70% of 13-17-year-old virtual world players (games like Minecraft, Roblox, etc.) say they like when brands open virtual stores in their virtual worlds.”  

An excellent example of virtual world collaboration is the latest partnership between Gamefam, Monster Jam and Spin Master. Gamefam, a metaverse media company for Gen Z and Alpha communities, and Spin Master, a global children’s entertainment company and worldwide master toy partner for Monster Jam, announced the brand’s return to Roblox in October. This collaboration marks the third consecutive year Monster Jam will be integrated into Gamefam’s popular Roblox game, “Car Dealership Tycoon,” which has recorded over 2 billion visits. 

“We’re continuously exploring innovative ways for fans to engage with the action-packed Monster Jam experience outside of the arena and the toy aisle,” says Mark Morse, vice president, wheels and action, Spin Master. “Through our collaboration with Gamefam, we’ll meet our community by delivering immersive experiences in Roblox, where fans love to hang out and play. This year’s activation features 18 iconic Monster Jam trucks, including some highly anticipated new releases that will arrive just in time for the holiday season.”

Digital gaming is not just an opportunity for brands to be brought to life in new ways but also to become translated into new digital formats for a generation of digital natives and community-driven players searching for online experiences driven by brand, retail and intellectual property. 

Furby x Cakeworthy

Blending Realities

From toys moving into gaming to blending physical and digital play experiences, digitization and enhancement have been a central theme over the past few years and will continue to be pivotal in 2025. Immersive technologies such as augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) and connected play experiences reshape how children and adults engage with toys.

Phygital play – a convergence of physical and digital gaming – is increasingly driving toy innovation. According to Research and Markets, the AR toy market is expected to reach $3.71 billion by 2025, growing at a 14.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Toy companies like LEGO have embraced this trend with product lines such as Hidden Side and VIDIYO, which incorporate AR to extend physical play into the digital realm.

Toy manufacturers are expected to release even more hybrid toys that fuse tactile and virtual experiences. As brands increasingly cater to tech-savvy children and adults, phygital products will likely dominate the toy market in 2025, blurring the lines between traditional toys and video games.

In addition to AR and VR, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning are set to become significant components of toy innovation in 2025. Intelligent toys that understand voice commands, recognize faces and adapt to children’s behavior will offer personalized and interactive play experiences. Robotics, too, will play a pivotal role, with advanced AI-driven toys capable of engaging in more sophisticated, lifelike interactions, creating deeper emotional connections with children and adult collectors alike.

Daddy Pig Rollercoaster, Peppa Pig Park Gunzburg, Merlin Entertainment

A 360 Brand Ecosystem

Similarly, brands blending content and cognitive development are equally seeing a rise in engagement as brands move from the screen to the broader curriculum of childhood experiences. Today’s most successful kids’ brands don’t just create shows; they build worlds that immerse children far beyond the screen, extending into toys, live events, games and interactive experiences. Animation and content brands like “Blippi,” “PAW Patrol” and “Peppa Pig” go beyond passive viewing, crafting experiences that allow kids to connect with their favorite characters in real life every day.

“The kids’ entertainment and toy markets are influenced by shifting desires for human connection, interactive experiences and learning,” says Stephanie Bailey, head, global toys, Moonbug Entertainment. “Children do not just passively watch content; they actively engage with their favorite brands beyond a screen. Kids repetitively watch their favorite characters on YouTube and streaming platforms, but they also listen to music, play multi-player video games, collect trading cards, attend live tours, read books and carry their favorite toys everywhere.  The brands winning with consumers create multiple touchpoints for fan engagement, including consistent content, experiences and consumer products.”

Kids’ favorite shows are now the foundation of a broader ecosystem. Brands are creating collectible toys, board games, educational kits and apps that help young fans explore their favorite stories and characters through multiple touchpoints. PAW Patrol, for example, offers everything from interactive playsets to live stage tours that bring Adventure Bay’s heroes to life. This multi-platform approach turns entertainment into an interactive fan journey, where kids can go from watching a show to playing with characters and even participating in live events.

This trend is especially powerful when it meets educational and developmental goals. Brands like Blippi incorporate STEM and social-emotional learning, making playtime a foundation for skills beyond academics.

“With Blippi, we’ve built a loyal, engaged audience by creating a cohesive curriculum-based experience that connects watching, learning and playing,” says Freeland. “Whether it’s a Blippi crossover with ‘Sesame Street,’ a ‘Find Blippi’ game on Roblox or a live event, each touchpoint stays true to our mission to ignite curiosity in kids by turning real-world learning into playful adventures.”

Entertainment now means active engagement for today’s kids, a multi-sensory world that inspires them to learn, play and explore, all driven by licensed products and touchpoints. For parents, this evolution of licensed toys and content is a unique way to blend fun with learning, making play purposeful and memorable.

Converse x Dungeons and Dragons sneakers

Toy Brands Setting the Bar

Sustainability is no longer a niche concern in the toy industry; it has become a mainstream consumer expectation. With rising environmental awareness, parents increasingly seek eco-friendly toys made from recycled or renewable materials, and brands are responding.

LEGO, for instance, has committed to producing sustainable products by 2030, including the recent launch of bricks made from recycled plastics. Similarly, Mattel introduced its Barbie Loves the Ocean line, made from 90% recycled plastic, as part of its broader sustainability goals. According to a 2023 NPD report, 32% of parents consider sustainability a key factor in purchasing decisions.

As we move into 2025, we can expect more toy companies to adopt eco-friendly practices, including reducing plastic packaging, using biodegradable materials and promoting circular business models. These efforts will likely gain traction with consumers who prioritize sustainability in their buying choices.

By 2025, sustainability will be more than a consumer preference – it will become a regulatory requirement in crucial markets like Europe and North America. Toy companies are expected to respond by accelerating their efforts to meet zero-waste goals, using biodegradable or renewable materials and cutting down on plastic packaging. These eco-friendly initiatives may give rise to a new category of toys that entertain and educate children about environmental responsibility, positioning sustainability as a key selling point in the years ahead.

Dungeons & Dragons (D&D) x LEGO

Moving into 2025

As 2025 approaches, the toy industry is on the brink of an exciting new era. The intersection of technology, sustainability and nostalgia presents unprecedented opportunities for brands to engage new and returning consumers. Whether through eco-friendly initiatives, immersive digital experiences or collectible toys that span generations, toy companies are set to innovate and redefine play in ways that resonate across all ages. Amid economic challenges, those who adapt quickly and stay in tune with shifting consumer expectations will lead the charge, driving the industry to new heights

As toys become more personalized, eco-conscious and technologically integrated, they will continue to influence broader trends in education, family dynamics and even mental well-being. The toy industry’s next chapter is about more than just products; it’s about redefining the concept of play as a lifelong journey that bridges the physical and digital worlds, fostering creativity, connection and innovation for future generations.

This story was taken from the December 2024 issue of License Global. Read the full issue here …