As of July 2021, most U.S. consumers planned to spend the same amount as last year on this year’s holiday shopping. Those who planned to spend less than last year outnumbered those who planned to spend more, according to a survey from The NPD Group. 

“The delta variant has dampened optimism felt by consumers earlier in the year, causing uncertainty that will require manufacturers and retailers to be prepared, patient and persistent in their actions throughout the holiday shopping season,” says Marshal Cohen, retail chief industry advisor, NPD. “Watch for a very early and strong start, followed by more pronounced lulls and a late surge.” 

The start of the holiday shopping season continues to come earlier, and it is more blurred. 

“Many of the essential items purchased to fulfill pandemic-driven needs earlier in the year are reducing consumers' current and future need to buy,” says Cohen. “Holiday season spending will be fueled by new demand related to lifestyle needs of the moment.” 

Holiday shopping and pandemic-driven behaviors will extend through the end of the year. 

The ways consumers have spent increased free time since the start of the pandemic show little change from earlier in the year. Last year's influences on retail purchases continue rising to the top, like more time spent watching TV, cooking, baking and exercising. 

“Even though consumers are dining out, traveling and enjoying other experiential activities, many aspects of pandemic lifestyle remain,” says Cohen. “It is those lasting home-based behaviors related to working, entertainment, health and fitness developed over the past year that will be front-and-center for consumers through the holidays, influencing the types of products that lead the season.”