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Numerator Launches Vaccinated Tracker for Retail

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The study shows how vaccines could affect the state of retail.

Numerator has launched a Vaccinated Shopper Behavior Tracker to study the impact of COVID-19 vaccines on consumer shopping behavior.

The tracker showcases the weekly, cross-channel purchase behavior of more than 7,000 early vaccinated shoppers and spans 13 channels, including online.

Vaccinated shoppers are defined as fully vaccinated by March 1, 2021, based on a survey fielded to Numerator's consumer OmniPanel.

Key findings include:

  • 3 in 5 consumers have been or plan to be vaccinated. At the time of the study, 8 percent of consumers were fully vaccinated and approximately 50 percent intended to get vaccinated when they become eligible;
  • 2 in 5 consumers are not entirely convinced of the vaccine. 20 percent did not plan to get vaccinated, and 22 percent were unsure about whether they would get the vaccine;
  • 23 percent are over 65 years of age (Boomers and the Greatest Generation); 15 percent are Boomers under 65; 35 percent are Gen X; 26 percent are Millennials and 2 percent are Gen Z.

Observed shopping behaviors among early vaccinated shoppers, as compared to the average week in 2020, include:

Sales

The in-store sales index has been rising steadily among vaccinated shoppers since the beginning of the year, up 12 percent vs. 2020 for the week ending March 14. Significant winter weather disruptions likely impacted dips in Weeks 4 and 7 of 2021. The online sales index for vaccinated shoppers is also up 12 percent vs. 2020 for the same period, indicating that in-store increases won't necessarily result in online decreases.

The gas and convenience channel has the highest sales increase versus 2020 at more than 33 percent, showing ongoing increases as this channel reopens and vaccinated shoppers start diversifying their shopping again. Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) sales see an apparent uptick starting in late February (more than 18 percent for the most recent week), as vaccinated consumers become more comfortable eating outside of the home.

Trips

In-store shopping trips rise above 2020 averages for the first time in late February 2021 as vaccinated consumers diversify shopping. Similar to sales, overall in-store shopping trips and QSR visits are up among vaccinated consumers (by 4 percent and 6 percent, respectively). Online orders hold steady vs. 2020 averages -- even with an increase in in-store trips.

Households

The number of households shopping in-store remains steady in 2021, on average up 5 percent over 2020. Club (up 12 percent) and gas and convenience (up 7 percent) see more dramatic increases in total household shopping in 2021.

To learn more, check out Numerator's Vaccinated Shopper Behavior Tracker here.

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