Online sales also expected to increase by 6 to 8 percent.

The National Retail Federation expects U.S. sales in November and December (excluding auto, gas and restaurant sales) to increase a solid 3.7 percent over last year to total $630.5 billion.

This is significantly higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent, but in line with 2014 holiday sales, which increased 4.1 percent over the previous year.

2015 holiday sales are expected to represent approximately 19 percent of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion. 

Additionally, the NRF forecasts that online holiday sales will increase between 6 and 8 percent to as much as $105 billion.

“With several months of solid retail sales behind us, we’re heading into the all-important holiday season fully expecting to see healthy growth,” says Matthew Shay, president and chief executive officer, NRF. “However, while economic indicators have improved in several areas, Americans remain somewhat torn between their desire and their ability to spend; the fact remains, consumers still have the weight of the economy on their minds, further explaining the complex retail spending environment we are seeing right now. We expect families to spend prudently and deliberately, though still less constrained than what we saw even two years ago.”