May retail sales rose by 0.7 percent over April and 5.6 percent year over year, according to the NRF.

“The economy is looking strong and households have a solid financial foundation on which to base their spending,” says Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist, NRF. “We have seen ongoing momentum over the last several months and believe sales growth should remain healthy and consistent with our 2018 outlook. Nonetheless, inflation and rising oil prices are complicating the picture. And new tariffs or a trade war would certainly be negatives that would increase prices and reduce both consumer purchasing power and consumer confidence.”

Kleinhenz also pointed to tax cuts, unemployment at a long-time low and positive availability of consumer credit as contributing factors.

The three-month moving average increased by 4.6 percent compared to the same period last year, exceeding NRF”s forecast that 2018 retail sales would grow between 3.8 percent and 4.4 percent over 2017.

The NRF data was sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau which reported that overall May sales (including automobiles, gasoline and restaurants) increased 0.8 percent compared to April and up 5.9 percent year over year

The NRF also found that: