Promotions Expected to Drive Holiday Shopping Beyond Black Friday

Once synonymous with the day after Thanksgiving in the U.S., Black Friday has transformed into a global sales event marking the start of the holiday shopping season. What began as a single day of shopping frenzy now spans weeks of promotions, reshaping retail strategies. Despite its extended timeline, Black Friday continues to draw record numbers of shoppers, even in a year marked by economic challenges, an election cycle and a tighter holiday shopping window. 

According to S&P Global Ratings, holiday sales are forecasted to grow by a modest 3% this year, compared to 4.7% in 2023. With Black Friday falling on Nov. 29, shoppers face a shortened time frame between Thanksgiving and Christmas, pushing many retailers to begin promotions as early as October. Amazon reported its Prime Big Deals Days on Oct. 8 and 9 as its largest-ever holiday kickoff event. According to The National Retail Federation (NRF), nearly half (45%) of holiday shoppers began their purchases before November. 

Shortened Shopping Window Fuels Deals 

Shoppers, increasingly focused on value, are flocking to early promotions. The National Retail Federation (NRF) revealed in its annual Holiday Consumer Survey that 57% of consumers plan to shop over the Thanksgiving weekend, driven by deals deemed “too good to pass up.” Black Friday remains the most popular shopping day, with 72% (131.7 million) expected to participate, including 65% who plan to visit physical stores. Meanwhile, 39% (72.3 million) are expected to participate in Cyber Monday. 

Related:Holiday Forecasters Predict Modest Sales Growth

In the U.S., the NRF projects a record 183.4 million shoppers during the Thanksgiving weekend, surpassing last year’s 182 million. Overall holiday spending for November and December is expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5%, totaling $979.5 billion to $989 billion. 

“Even though holiday shopping continues to pull forward, some of the busiest shopping days of the year are during the five-day Thanksgiving weekend,” says Katherine Cullen, president, industry and consumer insights, NRF. “Consumers are prioritizing gift-giving for the most important people in their lives, and retailers are prepared to help customers find everything on their shopping lists at great prices throughout the season.” 

Promotions Drive Toy Sales in the U.K. 

Across the Atlantic, the U.K. toy market is experiencing a boost, largely driven by nostalgic "kidults." According to Circana, the past year saw record-breaking sales of £1 billion, with this demographic accounting for nearly one in every three pounds spent on toys. Promotions played a significant role, with the U.K. having the highest level of promotion on toys across Europe, accounting for 35% of all toy sales in 2023, significantly higher than Europe’s 24% average.  

Related:It’s Time to Start Toy Shopping

“It’s all go, go, go – and ho, ho, ho as the final quarter progresses,” says Melissa Symonds, director, U.K. toys, Circana. “It is the biggest time of the year for UK toy sales – with December alone accounting for 21% of annual toy sales, the equivalent of January to April sales combined. Retailers and brands in retail are becoming increasingly reliant on a strong final quarter of the year with many starting their Christmas campaigns earlier to avoid ‘holiday fatigue’. With December 25^th falling on a Wednesday this year, retailers will be hoping for a late shopping surge – which we last saw in 2019. The extra shopping days could significantly determine the overall performance of the UK toy market, which has shown improvement over previous years, down just 3% this year compared to -4% in 2023 and -5% in 2022.” 

Black Friday Online Shopping Still Dominates 

Online shopping continues to lead the holiday season, with 83% of consumers planning to shop online, according to Circana’s Holiday Purchase Intentions report. However, 74% intend to shop both online and in stores, presenting brick-and-mortar retailers with opportunities for experiential shopping and exclusive in-person offers. 

“Convenience and value are paramount for consumers, creating an interesting dance between e-commerce and physical retail this holiday shopping season,” says Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor, Circana. “More than ever, holiday shoppers will be utilizing all shopping channels and resources to maximize their spending ability and overall shopping experience.” 

Even once-traditionally in-store events like Black Friday have shifted online. Circana’s checkout receipt-based sales tracking shows that Black Friday has ranked as the top shopping day for both in-store and online purchases in recent years. 

While economic challenges and a condensed holiday timeline may pose obstacles, they are unlikely to dampen the spirit of holiday shopping. Shoppers this year remain driven by deals, extending the holiday season beyond Black Friday with retailers capturing demand earlier and sustaining momentum through December.